🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.