🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."